THUNDER VS.PELICANS GAME 2 ODDS AND PREDICTIONS

The 2023-24 NBA playoffs action continues this week as we head into the second game of each first-round series. One of the two games on tap from today’s slate features the Oklahoma City Thunder taking on the New Orleans Pelicans.

Here is a look at which squad has the edge in Game 2 of this first-round playoff series and why.

Thunder vs. Pelicans – How We Got Here & Betting Trends

OKC is the consensus favorite in Game 2

The New Orleans Pelicans concluded their season with a 5-5 record, placing them at the No. 8 spot in the conference playoff race. In the opening round of the Play-In round, the Pelicans took on the No. 7 seed Los Angeles Lakers. Zion Williamson torched the Lakers' defense for 40 points to go along with 11 boards. However, he was forced to exit the game with 3:30 to play.

LA went on to win that game by a 110-106 margin. But it is fair to say the game could have ended differently if Williamson had been able to finish. The Pelicans bounced back with a 105-98 win over the Sacramento Kings, pitting them against the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder.

The Pelicans played well against the Thunder in the series opener, but ultimately fell short 94-92. Trey Murphy III scored a team-high 21 points to go along with four rebounds.

CJ McCollum added 20 points and six assists. But the veteran shooting guard connected on just nine of 22 attempts and shot 2-for-9 from 3-point range. Jonas Valanciunas was an inside presence for New Orleans as he finished with 13 points and a whopping 20 rebounds, including nine on the offensive glass.

The Pelicans had multiple opportunities to steal this game but failed to capitalize down the stretch, going 1-for-7 in the final 3:30.

On the other side of this matchup, the Thunder finished with the best record in the Western Conference by way of owning the head-to-head tiebreaker against the Denver Nuggets. And producing an impressive 7-3 record over their final 10 regular season certainly helped their cause.

Despite their spectacular season, Game 1 proved to be an early reality check for Oklahoma City. The game was tied at 17 after the first quarter and knotted at 43 at the break.

Fast-forward to the waning moments of the game, Gilgeous-Alexander converted a three-point play to give the home team a 93-90 lead. CJ McCollum answered with a mid-range jumper, trimming the deficit to 93-92.

Chet Holmgren was fouled with 14 seconds left, but split a pair of free throws, giving OKC a 94-92 lead. On the final possession of the contest, McCollum missed a difficult three-point attempt, enabling the Thunder to escape with a 94-92 win.

Gilgeous-Alexander led the Thunder’s scoring attack with 28 points on 11-for-24 shooting from the field. He also grabbed six rebounds and handed out four assists.

Jalen Williams added 19 points and seven rebounds, while Chet Holmgren produced a solid 15-point, 11-rebound effort for OKC.

The Thunder were not efficient from an offensive standpoint (43.5 percent shooting and 31.3 percent from beyond the arc). However, they held their end at the other end of the floor, limiting New Orleans to 38.5 percent shooting from the field and 28.2 percent from 3-point range. This is a significant stat because New Orleans shot a lower percentage just three times during the 82-game regular season.

Now that we have set the table for this Game 2 showdown, let’s look at the betting trends for both sides.

The Picks

GIVE ME SPORT presents our picks with analysis

The Spread

Despite winning the opener by just two points, Oklahoma City opened as an 8.5-point favorite. At the time of this writing, the line has moved to 7.5 points for the home team (per OddShark.com). Here is a look at how both ball clubs have fared against the spread this season.

• The Pelicans are 4-2 ATS in their last six outings.
• New Orleans is 6-13 ATS in its last 19 matchups against OKC.
• In its last five Wednesday night games, the Pelicans are 1-4 against the spread.
• The Thunder are 4-1 ATS in their last five contests.
• Oklahoma City is 1-4 ATS in their last five home games against New Orleans.
• The last six times the Thunder have played on Wednesday, they are 1-5 against the spread.

The Thunder are 16-11 against the spread when they are favored to win by 7.5 points or more. Meanwhile, the Pelicans have been an underdog of 7.5 points or more just three times this season. In those contests, they are 2-1 against the spread. Considering that New Orleans kept the game close right until the end, taking them to cover a 7.5-point spread is the right player here.

• Prediction: New Orleans Pelicans (+7.5)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 213.5 points (per Pre-Game.com). But according to DraftKings, the line has moved to 210.5 points. Here is why going with the “over” is the smart choice.

• The total has gone UNDER four times in the Pelicans’ last five games.
• In New Orleans’ last seven road games, the UNDER total is 6-1.
• The UNDER total is 6-2 in the Pelicans’ last eight matchups against Western Conference opponents.
• The total has gone UNDER four times in the Thunder’s last five contests.
• In OKC’s last seven games against New Orleans, the UNDER total prevailed five times.
• The last six times the Thunder have played in April, the UNDER total cashed in eight times.
• Prediction: UNDER 210.5 points

Player Prop Bets

CJ McCollum is the player to watch for the Pelicans. He currently has -118 odds of scoring more than 20.5 points and -102 odds of finishing with less than 20.5 points.

Here is a look at how his numbers stack up against the projected points total for this matchup.

• During the regular season and playoffs, McCollum is averaging 20.0 points per contest.
• In four games against the Thunder this season, McCollum has averaged 21.0 points per contest.
• During the postseason, he is averaging 20.0 points per outing.
• McCollum has played against Western Conference teams 40 times this season (including the playoffs). In those contests, he is averaging 21.0 points per outing.
• In 12 matchups against Northwest Division opponents, the Pelicans veteran guard is averaging 22.1 points per game.
• Over his last 10 outings, McCollum has averaged 24.7 points and 5.0 assists per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup eight times during that stretch.
• Prediction: CJ McCollum OVER 20.5 points

Following his 28-point performance in the series opener, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the key player to watch for the home team. He currently has -102 odds of scoring more than 29.5 points and -118 odds of finishing with less than 29.5 points.

Do Gilgeous-Alexander’s numbers favorably compare to the estimated points total for this matchup? Let’s look at the tale of the tape to find out.

• During the regular season and playoffs, SGA is averaging 30.0 points per game.
• In four games against the Pacers this season (including the playoffs), he has averaged 25.8 points per contest.
• During the postseason, he is averaging 28 points per outing.
• Gilgeous-Alexander has played against Western Conference teams 50 times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 29.8 points per outing.
• In 18 matchups against Southwest Division opponents, he is averaging 26.7 points per game.
• Over his last 10 outings, Lillard has averaged 24.1 points and 5.0 assists per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup two times during that stretch.
• Prediction: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 29.5 points

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. New Orleans Pelicans Final Picks

• The Spread: New Orleans Pelicans (+1) OddShark
• Over/Under: OVER 223.5 points (Pre-Game.com)
• Player Prop Bet #1: CJ McCollum OVER 20.5 points
• Player Prop Bet #2: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 29.5 points

2024-04-25T06:08:33Z dg43tfdfdgfd