LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS VS. DALLAS MAVERICKS GAME 5 ODDS AND PREDICTIONS

The 2023-24 NBA playoffs action continues this week as we move to the latter stages of some of the first-round series. One of the games from today's slate features the Los Angeles Clippers (53-33 SU, 40-46 ATS) hosting the Dallas Mavericks (52-34 SU, 50-36 ATS).

Here is a look at which squad has the edge heading into Game 5 and why.

Clippers vs. Mavericks Stats & Betting Trends

Dallas is the slight favorite heading into Game 5

The Clippers were facing the possibility of going down 3-1 when they squared off against the Mavericks in Game 4. Although they jumped out to a 31-point advantage, they nearly gave it all back. Fortunately, they managed to escape with a 116-111 victory to send the series back to Los Angeles tied at two games apiece.

James Harden tied for team-high scoring honors with 33 points on 12-for-17 shooting from the field and 4-for-5 from beyond the arc. He also handed out seven assists and collected six rebounds.

Paul George also scored 33 points, eight assists, six rebounds, and four steals. George also made seven of his 10 attempts from distance. The Clippers shot 53.8 percent from the field overall and a blistering 62.1 percent (18-for-29) from the three-point line.

Meanwhile, the Mavericks' backcourt duo led the Mavericks' scoring attack. Kyrie Irving scored 40 points, grabbed seven rebounds, and gave out five assists.

Luka Dončić — despite being hobbled with knee soreness — added 29 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists. He was just 10-for-24 from the floor and 1-for-9 from three-point range.

As was the case in Game 1, the Mavericks fell behind early and spent the rest of the contest playing catch-up. That trend must change if Dallas hopes to reclaim the series lead and push the Clippers to the brink of elimination.

Now that we have set the table for this Game 5 showdown, let’s examine the betting trends for both sides.

Clippers vs. Mavericks Picks

GIVEMESPORT presents our picks with analysis

The Spread

The Mavericks opened as a 1.5-point underdog. At the time of this writing, Dallas is now a three-point favorite (per OddShark.com). Here is a look at how both ball clubs have fared against the spread this season.

• The Mavericks are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 outings.
• Dallas is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 matchups against Los Angeles.
• In their last 20 games against Western Conference opponents, the Mavericks are 15-5 against the spread.
• The Clippers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games.
• Los Angeles is 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.
• The Clippers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine contests against Southwest Division teams.
• In their last five matchups against Southwest Division teams, the Clippers failed to cover the spread all five times.

The Mavericks are 27-15 ATS when they are favored by three points or more. Conversely, Los Angeles has an against-the-spread record of 5-8 when playing as the underdog of at least three points. However, Los Angeles is 4-3 ATS in its last seven matchups against Dallas.

• Prediction: Los Angeles Clippers (+3)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 210.5 points. The line has recently moved to 206.5 points (per Pre-Game.com). Here is why going with the “under” is the smart choice.

• The total has gone UNDER six times in the Mavericks' last seven games.
• The UNDER total has cashed in nine times in Dallas's last 11 road contests.
• In the Mavericks' last five road matchups against Los Angeles, the UNDER total prevailed all five times.
• The total has gone UNDER five times in the Clippers' last six outings.
• The UNDER total is 5-1 in the Clippers' last six games against Dallas.
• In Los Angeles's last five games against Western Conference teams, the UNDER total is 4-1.
• Prediction: UNDER 206.5 points

Player Prop Bets

Fresh off a 40-point outburst in Game 4, Kyrie Irving is the key player to watch for the Mavericks. He currently has -118 odds of scoring more than 25.5 points and -102 odds of finishing with less than 25.5 points (per DraftKings).

Here is a look at how his numbers stack up against the projected points total for this matchup.

• Irving is averaging 25.8 points per contest during the regular season and playoffs.
• In six games against the Clippers this season, Irving has averaged 28.0 points per contest.
• During the postseason, he is averaging 28.8 points per outing.
• Irving has played against Western Conference teams 39 times this season (including the playoffs). In those contests, he is averaging 26.5 points per outing.
• In 15 matchups against Southeast Division opponents, the Mavericks' guard is averaging 26.0 points per game.
• Over his last five outings, Irving has averaged 28.0 points and 4.4 assists per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup three times during that stretch.
• Prediction: Kyrie Irving OVER 24.5 points

Following his 33-point outing in Game 4, James Harden is the key player to watch for the home team. He currently has -105 odds of scoring more than 22.5 points and -115 odds of finishing with less than 22.5 points.

Do Harden's numbers favorably compare to the estimated total points for this matchup? Let’s look at the tale of the tape to find out.

• Harden is averaging 17.1 points per contest during the regular season and playoffs.
• In seven games against the Mavericks this season, Irving has averaged 20.4 points per contest.
• During the postseason, he is averaging 26.0 points per outing.
• Harden has played against Western Conference teams 48 times this season (including the playoffs). In those contests, he is averaging 17.1 points per outing.
• In 18 matchups against Southeast Division opponents, the Clippers' guard is averaging 16.6 points per game.
• Over his last five outings, Harden has averaged 21.6 points and 6.6 assists per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup twice during that stretch.
• Prediction: James Harden OVER 22.5 points

Los Angeles Clippers vs. Dallas Mavericks Final Picks

• The Spread: Los Angeles Clippers (+3) OddShark
• Over/Under: UNDER 206.5 points (Pre-Game.com)
• Player Prop Bet #1: Kyrie Irving OVER 24.5 points
• Player Prop Bet #2: James Harden OVER 22.5 points

2024-05-02T03:50:48Z dg43tfdfdgfd