CHAMPIONSHIP RELEGATION: WHO WILL BEAT THE DROP AND WHO WILL BE JOINING ROTHERHAM UNITED IN LEAGUE ONE? - OPINION

This season, the Championship has yet again shown why it’s one of the best and most competitive leagues in the world. While the battle for the top two spots looks set to the final day, the battle to stay up is just as tight. We’ve looked at each team’s remaining fixtures and how likely they are to stay up. 

With just three games to go in the 2023/24 Championship season, ten teams can mathematically still be relegated, along with Rotherham United. Of those ten, Opta stats rank five teams with at least a 10% probability of going down. Those teams are Stoke City, QPR, Birmingham City, Huddersfield Town, and Sheffield Wednesday.

We’ve had a closer look at all ten’s final three games with a massive few weeks of twists and turns upcoming.

Millwall 

Current points – 50

Run-in – Sunderland (A), Plymouth (H), Swansea (A)

Millwall are six points above the drop zone, so will be confident they won’t be going down this year. However, there’s still a chance they could face the drop despite their six-point gap.

Luckily for Millwall, their fate is in their hands, and they face two teams that have nothing to play for. A point this weekend and other results going their way would see Millwall’s safety confirmed.

Blackburn Rovers

Current points – 49

Run-in – Sheffield Wednesday (H), Coventry (H), Leicester (A)

Although Blackburn Rovers are five points above the drop, they’ve got three huge games before the season’s over. This weekend, they take on Sheffield Wednesday, before facing playoff-chasing Coventry City and promotion-chasing Leicester City. If Blackburn Rovers lose to Sheffield Wednesday, they’ll be nervously looking over their shoulders for their final two games.

Luckily for Blackburn Rovers, they’ve the league’s top scorer, Sammie Szmodics. If he can add to his tally of 24, they’ll be confident they’re staying up this season.

Plymouth Argyle

Current points – 48

Run-in – Stoke (A), Millwall (A), Hull (H)

Another team with a high-scoring player (Morgan Whittaker, 19 goals) but still struggling down near the bottom is Plymouth Argyle. They’re just four points above the drop zone, but have two favourable fixtures up next.

Their next fixture is against strugglers Stoke City before they travel to Millwall. After their impressive win against Leicester City last time out, they’ll be confident against both of these teams.

An added layer to their game against Stoke City is the fact Stoke are managed by former Plymouth manager, Steven Schumacher. This adds even more importance for both teams in what is already a huge game.

Another big bonus for Plymouth is their goal difference. It’s currently -8 which is a lot better than the other teams they’re competing against to stay up.

QPR

Current points – 47

Run-in – Preston (H), Leeds (H), Coventry (A)

It looked a one point that QPR would be dropping out of the Championship. However, a clever manager change saw a turnaround in fortune that now sees them three points above the drop in 19th place.

Opta says QPR have a 14.7% probability of going down. This is in part because of their tough remaining fixtures, which are the toughest of any team. Both Preston and Coventry City have a chance of finishing in the playoffs, and Leeds United are battling for the title. It’s going to be a nervous three weeks for QPR, who’ll be keeping close tabs on results elsewhere.

Stoke City

Current points – 47

Run-in – Plymouth (H), Southampton (A), Bristol City (H)

By picking up a point away at Sheffield Wednesday on Saturday, Stoke City gave their hopes of staying up a massive boost. A defeat against Sheffield Wednesday would have left Stoke City on the same points as the Owls and in the middle of a dogfight to stay up.

Instead, they’re three points above the drop with a crucial game against Plymouth up next. A defeat against Plymouth and wins for the teams below them could see Stoke City level on points with the teams in the drop zone.

Despite this, Opta’s relegation probability gives Stoke City a better chance of staying compared to QPR. Their 10.1% chance of going down will fill their fans with hope, but their game against Plymouth is massive for Stoke City.

Birmingham City

Current points – 45

Run-in – Rotherham (A), Huddersfield (A), Norwich (H)

We often see managerial appointments working well for teams. Birmingham City are an example of when a managerial appointment goes wrong. John Eustace was sacked with the side 6th in the Championship and replaced by Wayne Rooney. Rooney lasted just 15 games before being sacked after the club tumbled down the league.

Now with Gary Rowett in caretaker charge after Tony Mowbray fell ill, they’re embroiled in a battle for the second-tier life. They’re just one point above the bottom three but have two winnable games back-to-back, especially after their big win against Coventry City last time out.

First, they face already relegated Rotherham United. Although it’s hard to look past a Birmingham City win, the Millers have just reappointed Steve Evans as their manager. This could give Rotherham United a boost before the two sides meet.

The game that Rowett will see as a must-win is their match up with Huddersfield Town. The two sides are separated by one point and depending on results this weekend, this game could be a relegation six-pointer.

Despite being so close to the drop zone, Opta gives Birmingham City a 37.2% probability of going down this season.

Huddersfield Town

Current points – 44

Run-in – Swansea (H), Birmingham (H), Ipswich (A)

Huddersfield Town occupy the 22nd spot, joint on points with Sheffield Wednesday in 23rd. The Terriers have been in the relegation mix for most of the season. After beating Sheffield Wednesday 4-0 in February, it was hoped they’d push on to survival, but they’ve failed to do that.

Opta gives Huddersfield Town a 57.1% probability of going down. Up next for them is a home game against Swansea City, who’ve won their last two games. Then they’ve got the crucial game against Birmingham City, before a trip to promotion-elect Ipswich Town.

Huddersfield Town have struggled to win this season, winning just nine games. The only team to win fewer is Rotherham United (4). This needs to change if they want any chance of staying up.

Sheffield Wednesday

Current points – 44

Run-in – Blackburn (A), West Brom (H), Sunderland (A)

After the first ten games, it looked like Sheffield Wednesday would be returning straight back to League One. Thanks to the introduction of Danny Röhl, they’ve given themselves a fighting chance of staying up.

They’ve been in the relegation zone since August 12th, 2023, despite several chances to get out. Even the most optimistic Sheffield Wednesday fan can’t argue with the Opta probability of 78.1% that they’ll be heading back to League One.

The Owls play their next game against Blackburn Rovers on Sunday. This could play to their advantage as they’ll know what the other teams have done. But it could also be a negative, especially if they know they need a win to get out of the bottom three.

After Blackburn Rovers, they face a strong West Brom who are for the playoffs, before a tough final game away at Sunderland.

Sheffield Wednesday fans and players will be praying results go their way Saturday before their must-win on Sunday at Ewood Park.

2024-04-17T16:49:39Z dg43tfdfdgfd